LRP-Lamb Market Report 1 July 2013
The LRP-Lamb price index ended last week at $114.62 per cwt. This is up $2.07 from last week’s index of $112.55.
LRP-Lamb insurance price forecasts expiring July 1, 2013 were as follows:
| Date Offered | Policy | Expected Ending Value | Actual % of Expected |
| 4/1/2013 | 13-week | $95.55 | 120.0% |
| 2/11/2013 | 20-week | $102.64 | 111.7% |
| 12/31/2012 | 26-week | $115.55 | 99.2% |
| 10/1/2012 | 39-week | $155.24 | 73.8% |
The effective floor prices offered by LRP-Lamb coverage for expiring policies were as follows:
| Effective Floor Price (Coverage Price – Premium) | ||||||
| (Premium per cwt.) | ||||||
| Date Offered | Policy | Expected Ending Value | 95% | 90% | 85% | 80% |
| 4/1/2013 | 13-week | $95.55 | $88.528 | $85.160 | $80.954 | $76.367 |
| (2.242) | (0.840) | (0.266) | (0.073) | |||
| 2/11/2013 | 20-week | $102.64 | 93.814 | 90.624 | 86.505 | 81.837 |
| (3.696) | (1.756) | (0.735) | (0.273) | |||
| 12/31/2012 | 26-week | $115.55 | 105.35 | 101.644 | 97.080 | 91.934 |
| (4.420) | (2.356) | (1.140) | (0.506) | |||
| 10/1/2012 | 39-week | $155.24 | 139.183 | 134.616 | 128.996 | 122.576 |
| (8.297) | (5.104) | (2.954) | (1.614) | |||
Only the 39-week expiring insurance coverage will pay any indemnity and it will pay an indemnity at all four coverage levels. The net effective floor prices for the various coverage levels of the expiring 39-week contracts ranged from $122.58 per cwt. to $139.18 per cwt. with the up-front premium costs ranging from $1.61 per cwt. to $8.30 per cwt.
LRP-Lamb price insurance coverage offered on 1 July 2013 is as follows:
| Date Offered: 1 July 2013 | Effective Floor Price (Coverage Price – Premium) | |||||
| (Premium per cwt.) | ||||||
| Policy | End Date | Expected Ending Value | 95% | 90% | 85% | 80% |
| 13-week | 9/30/2013 | $100.45 | $93.073 | $89.517 | $85.100 | $80.283 |
| (2.357) | (0.883) | (0.280) | (0.077) | |||
| 20-week | 11/18/2013 | $96.53 | 88.225 | 85.228 | 81.359 | 76.964 |
| (3.475) | (1.652) | (0.691) | (0.256) | |||
| 26-week | 12/30/2013 | $89.41 | 81.519 | 78.647 | 75.118 | 71.139 |
| (3.421) | (1.823) | (0.882) | (0.391) | |||
| 39-week | 3/31/2014 | $120.16 | 107.728 | 104.180 | 99.853 | 94.880 |
| (6.422) | (3.950) | (2.287) | (1.250) | |||
Expected Ending Value for 9/30/2013 is $100.45, up $2.65 from last week’s expected ending value for 9/23/2013. It is up $9.34 from the $91.11 expected ending value for 9/30/2013 offered on 5/13/2013 20-week insurance policies. It is up $6.44 from the $94.01 expected ending value for 9/30/2013 offered on 4/1/2013 26-week insurance policies.
Expected Ending Value for 11/18/2013 is $96.53, up $1.44 from last week’s expected ending value for 11/11/2013. It is up $15.52 from the $81.01 expected ending value for 11/18/2013 offered on 5/20/2013 26-week insurance policies. It is up $0.35 from the $96.18 expected ending value for 11/18/2013 offered on 2/18/2013 39-week insurance policies.
Expected Ending Value for 12/30/2013 is $89.41, up $1.31 from last week’s expected ending value for 12/23/2013. However, it is also down $11.00 from the $100.41 expected ending value for 12/30/2013 offered on 4/1/2013 39-week insurance policies.
Expected Ending Value for 3/31/2014 is $120.16, up $2.05 from last week’s expected ending value for 3/24/2014.
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