LRP-Lamb Market Report 26 August 2013

The LRP-Lamb price index ended last week at $114.73 per cwt. This is down $0.94 from last week’s index of $115.67.

LRP-Lamb insurance price forecasts expiring August 26, 2013 were as follows:

Date Offered

Policy

Expected Ending Value

Actual % of Expected

5/27/2013

13-week

$95.15

120.6%

4/8/2013

20-week

$96.49

118.9%

2/25/2013

26-week

$93.76

122.4%

11/26/2012

39-week

$136.81

83.9%

The effective floor prices offered by LRP-Lamb coverage for policies expiring August 26, 2013 were as follows:

     

Effective Floor Price (Coverage Price – Producer Premium)

     

(Producer Premium per cwt.)

Date Offered

Policy

Expected Ending Value

95%

90%

85%

80%

5/27/2013

13-week

$95.15

$88.447

$84.912

$80.649

$76.056

     

(1.943)

(0.728)

(0.231)

(0.064)

4/8/2013

20-week

$96.49

88.648

85.404

81.419

76.967

     

(3.022)

(1.436)

(0.601)

(0.223)

2/25/2013

26-week

$93.76

85.949

82.717

78.895

74.653

     

(3.121)

(1.663)

(0.805)

(0.357)

11/26/2012

39-week

$136.81

123.609

119.217

114.025

108.212

     

(6.361)

(3.913)

(2.265)

(1.238)

Only the 39-week expiring insurance coverage will pay any indemnity and it will pay an indemnity at the top three coverage levels. The net effective floor prices for the various coverage levels of the expiring contracts issuing an indemnity ranged from $123.61 per cwt. to $114.03 per cwt. Only the 95% coverage level and the 90% coverage level paid indemnities large enough to cover the premium costs. The up-front premium costs ranged from $6.36 per cwt. to $2.26 per cwt. After the fact, the best a person could have done was to insure at the 95% coverage level on November 26, 2012.

 

LRP-Lamb price insurance coverage offered on 26 August 2013 is as follows:

Date Offered: 26 August 2013

Effective Floor Price (Coverage Price – Producer Premium)

     

(Producer Premium per cwt.)

Policy

End Date

Expected Ending Value

95%

90%

85%

80%

13-week

11/25/2013

$99.75

$92.723

$89.017

$84.548

$79.733

     

(2.034)

(0.763)

(0.242)

(0.067)

20-week

1/13/2014

$97.21

89.305

86.043

82.024

77.546

     

(3.045)

(1.447)

(0.606)

(0.224)

26-week

2/24/2014

$99.83

91.517

89.08

84.003

79.48

     

(3.226)

(1.77)

(0.857)

(0.38)

39-week

5/26/2014

$130.38

117.798

113.611

108.662

103.12

     

(6.062)

(3.729)

(2.158)

(1.18)

Compared to last week, the 13-week expected ending value is down $0.11 per cwt., the 20-week expected ending value is down $0.11, the 26-week expected ending value is up $1.99, and the 39-week expected ending value is up $1.88.

The expected ending value for 11/25/2013 is UP $17.83 per cwt. compared to the 26-week expected ending value posted on May 27. It is up $1.40 per cwt. compared to the 39-week expected ending value posted on February 25. So, this is the best offering to date for the 11/25/2013 expected ending value.

The expected ending value for 1/13/2014 is up $16.11 per cwt. compared to the 26-week expected ending value posted on July 15. It is down $10.10 per cwt. compared to the 39-week expected ending value posted on April 15.

The expected ending value for 2/24/2014 is down $6.39 per cwt. compared to the 39-week expected ending value posted on May 27.

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