LRP-Lamb Market Report 5 August 2013

The LRP-Lamb price index ended last week at $115.78 per cwt. This is up $0.69 from last week’s index of $115.09.

LRP-Lamb insurance price forecasts expiring August 5, 2013 were as follows:

Date Offered	Policy	Expected Ending Value	Actual % of Expected
5/6/2013	13-week	$93.94	123.2%
3/18/2013	20-week	$90.69	127.7%
2/4/2013	26-week	$103.94	111.4%
11/5/2012	39-week	$132.13	87.6%

The effective floor prices offered by LRP-Lamb coverage for policies expiring August 5, 2013 were as follows:

			Effective Floor Price (Coverage Price – Premium)
			(Premium per cwt.)
Date Offered	Policy	Expected Ending Value	95%	90%	85%	80%
5/6/2013	13-week	$93.94	$87.036	$83.724	$79.588	$75.078
			(2.204)	(0.826)	(0.262)	(0.072)
3/18/2013	20-week	$90.69	82.895	80.068	76.441	72.309
			(3.265)	(1.552)	(0.649)	(0.241)
2/4/2013	26-week	$103.94	94.764	91.431	87.324	82.695
			(3.976)	(2.119)	(1.026)	(0.455)
11/5/2012	39-week	$132.13	118.458	114.576	109.795	104.326
			(7.062)	(4.344)	(2.515)	(1.374)

Only the 39-week expiring insurance coverage will pay any indemnity and it will pay an indemnity at the top two coverage levels. The net effective floor prices for the various coverage levels of the expiring 39-week contracts issuing an indemnity ranged from $118.46 per cwt. to $114.58 per cwt. meaning that only the 95% coverage level pays an indemnity large enough to cover the premium costs. The up-front premium costs ranged from $7.06 per cwt. to $4.34 per cwt. After the fact, the best a person could have done was to insure at the 95% coverage level on November 5, 2012.

LRP-Lamb price insurance coverage offered on 5 August 2013 is as follows:

Date Offered: 5 August 2013			Effective Floor Price (Coverage Price – Premium)
			(Premium per cwt.)
Policy	End Date	Expected Ending Value	95%	90%	85%	80%
13-week	11/4/2013	$95.07	$88.089	$84.724	$80.545	$75.987
			(2.231)	(0.836)	(0.265)	(0.073)
20-week	12/23/2013	$87.67	80.133	77.400	73.893	69.907
			(3.157)	(1.500)	(0.627)	(0.233)
26-week	2/3/2014	$87.23	79.533	76.732	73.289	69.398
			(3.337)	(1.778)	(0.861)	(0.382)
39-week	5/5/2014	$119.52	107.152	103.640	99.315	94.377
			(6.388)	(3.930)	(2.275)	(1.243)

Compared to last week, the 13-week expected ending value is down $7.14 per cwt., the 20-week expected ending value is down $10.41, the 26-week expected ending value is down $8.67, and the 39-week expected ending value is down $11.09.

The expected ending value for 11/4/2013 is down $2.20 per cwt. compared to the 20-week expected ending value posted on June 17. It is UP $14.64 per cwt. compared to the 26-week expected ending value posted on May 6. It is down $13.82 per cwt. compared to the 39-week expected ending value posted on February 4.

The expected ending value for 12/23/2013 is down $0.43 per cwt. compared to the 26-week expected ending value posted on June 24. It is down $16.06 per cwt. compared to the 39-week expected ending value posted on March 25.

The expected ending value for 2/3/2014 is down $13.24 per cwt. compared to the 39-week expected ending value posted on May 6.