LRP-Lamb Market Report 9 September 2013
The LRP-Lamb price index ended last week at $115.71 per cwt. This is up $0.98 from the index of $114.73 on August 26.
LRP-Lamb insurance price forecasts expiring September 9, 2013 were as follows:
|
Date Offered |
Policy |
Expected Ending Value |
Actual % of Expected |
|
6/10/2013 |
13-week |
$91.73 |
126.1% |
|
4/22/2013 |
20-week |
$92.96 |
124.5% |
|
3/11/2013 |
26-week |
$94.18 |
122.9% |
|
12/10/2012 |
39-week |
$127.28 |
90.9% |
The effective floor prices offered by LRP-Lamb coverage for policies expiring September 9, 2013 were as follows:
|
Effective Floor Price (Coverage Price – Producer Premium) |
||||||
|
(Producer Premium per cwt.) |
||||||
|
Date Offered |
Policy |
Expected Ending Value |
95% |
90% |
85% |
80% |
|
6/10/2013 |
13-week |
$91.73 |
$85.268 |
$81.858 |
$77.747 |
$73.319 |
|
(1.872) |
(0.702) |
(0.223) |
(0.061) |
|||
|
4/22/2013 |
20-week |
$92.96 |
85.398 |
82.277 |
78.441 |
74.155 |
|
(2.912) |
(1.383) |
(0.579) |
(0.215) |
|||
|
3/11/2013 |
26-week |
$94.18 |
86.335 |
83.090 |
79.242 |
74.982 |
|
(3.135) |
(1.670) |
(0.808) |
(0.358) |
|||
|
12/10/2012 |
39-week |
$127.28 |
115.001 |
110.909 |
106.083 |
100.668 |
|
(5.919) |
(3.641) |
(2.107) |
(1.152) |
|||
Only the 39-week expiring insurance coverage will pay any indemnity and it will pay an indemnity at the 95 % coverage level only. However, the net effective floor price at that coverage level was only $115.00 per cwt. indicating that it did not pay an indemnity large enough to cover the premium costs. The premium at that level was $6.803 with the producer share (87%) equating to $5.919 per cwt. The coverage price at the 95% coverage level was $120.92 per cwt. After the fact, the best a person could have done was not to insure lambs delivered on or about September 9, 2013.
LRP-Lamb price insurance coverage offered on 9 September 2013 is as follows:
|
Date Offered: 9 September 2013 |
Effective Floor Price (Coverage Price – Producer Premium) |
|||||
|
(Producer Premium per cwt.) |
||||||
|
Policy |
End Date |
Expected Ending Value |
95% |
90% |
85% |
80% |
|
13-week |
12/9/2013 |
$101.44 |
$94.299 |
$90.524 |
$85.974 |
$81.082 |
|
(2.071) |
(0.776) |
(0.246) |
(0.068) |
|||
|
20-week |
1/27/2014 |
$95.31 |
87.555 |
84.361 |
80.417 |
76.030 |
|
(2.985) |
(1.419) |
(0.593) |
(0.220) |
|||
|
26-week |
3/10/2014 |
$102.78 |
94.219 |
90.677 |
86.478 |
81.829 |
|
(3.421) |
(1.823) |
(0.882) |
(0.392) |
|||
|
39-week |
6/9/2014 |
$131.22 |
118.559 |
114.656 |
109.368 |
103.792 |
|
(6.101) |
(3.444) |
(2.172) |
(1.188) |
|||
Compared to two weeks ago, the 13-week expected ending value is up $1.69 per cwt., the 20-week expected ending value is down $1.90, the 26-week expected ending value is up $2.95, and the 39-week expected ending value is up $0.84.
The expected ending value for 12/9/2013 is UP $6.78 per cwt. compared to the $94.68 per cwt. expected ending value for that date on 7/22/13 for a 20-week policy.
The expected ending value for 12/9/2013 is UP $20.02 per cwt. compared to the $81.42 per cwt. expected ending value for that date on 6/10/13 for a 26-week policy.
The expected ending value for 12/9/2013 is UP $2.56 per cwt. compared to the $98.88 per cwt. expected ending value for that date on 3/11/13 for a 39-week policy.
The current expected ending value for 12/9/2013 of $101.44 represents the HIGHEST expected ending value for that date to this point in time.
The expected ending value for 1/27/2014 is down $0.59 per cwt. compared to the $95.90 per cwt. expected ending value for that date on 7/29/13 for a 26-week policy.
The expected ending value for 1/27/2014 is down $5.78 per cwt. compared to the $101.09 per cwt. expected ending value for that date on 4/29/13 for a 39-week policy.
The current expected ending value for 1/27/2014 of $95.31 represents the lowest expected ending value for that date to this point in time.
The expected ending value for 3/10/2014 is down $7.68 per cwt. compared to the $110.46 per cwt. expected ending value for that date on 6/10/13 for a 39-week policy.
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